An NBA Draft Lesson From Recent History

Looking back to the 1998 NBA Draft can be painful for many NBA franchises and their fans.  There were a number of All Star caliber players selected that year but most of those players were passed over by the teams picking at the top of the draft.  In particular, a lanky German big man named Dirk Nowitzki lasted until the #9 pick while NCAA players with more exposure such as Michael Olowokandi (right) and Robert Traylor were picked #1 and #6 respectively.  Other college players such as Raef LaFrentz,  Jason Williams and Larry Hughes were also picked ahead of Dirk and those GM's and scouts who made the calls have not taken their mistakes lightly.

In subsequent years the lessons learned from the 1998 draft have been on display and we have seen Euro big men selected higher and higher each year.  Some have been colossal busts like N. Tskitishvili (#5 in 2002) and Darko Milicic (#2 in 2003), others have become stars, like Pau Gasol (#3 in 2001) and Andrea Bargnani (#1 in 2006)

The 2010 draft class features another intriguing 7 footer from Europe, Donatas Motiejunas of Lithuania.  He has a game similar to Bargnani, Nowitzki and Gasol but like the others mentioned above, it is uncertain how his game will translate to the NBA.

Note from 6/5/10: Motiejunas has withdrawn his name from the 2010 Draft.

The NBA Draft is all about potential.  Not "what can you do for me this year" but rather "how good will you be three or four years from now?"  So teams take big risks in hopes of big rewards down the line which sometimes works out great but can also be devastating for a franchise like the Pistons selecting Darko ahead of Melo, D. Wade and Bosh.
But despite the failures of some players, the Nowitzki Affect still lingers and GMs and scouts look overseas more than ever to find the next coming.  Motiejunas may not be the next Dirk Nowitzki but he will likely be drafted higher than Dirk was, partially thanks to the agony of those franchises that passed on the little known German in favor of the safer pick.

I project Motiejunas going #6 to the Warriors, drafted by the same man who drafted Nowitzki - Don Nelson.