An NBA Draft Lesson From Recent History

Looking back to the 1998 NBA Draft can be painful for many NBA franchises and their fans.  There were a number of All Star caliber players selected that year but most of those players were passed over by the teams picking at the top of the draft.  In particular, a lanky German big man named Dirk Nowitzki lasted until the #9 pick while NCAA players with more exposure such as Michael Olowokandi (right) and Robert Traylor were picked #1 and #6 respectively.  Other college players such as Raef LaFrentz,  Jason Williams and Larry Hughes were also picked ahead of Dirk and those GM's and scouts who made the calls have not taken their mistakes lightly.

In subsequent years the lessons learned from the 1998 draft have been on display and we have seen Euro big men selected higher and higher each year.  Some have been colossal busts like N. Tskitishvili (#5 in 2002) and Darko Milicic (#2 in 2003), others have become stars, like Pau Gasol (#3 in 2001) and Andrea Bargnani (#1 in 2006)

The 2010 draft class features another intriguing 7 footer from Europe, Donatas Motiejunas of Lithuania.  He has a game similar to Bargnani, Nowitzki and Gasol but like the others mentioned above, it is uncertain how his game will translate to the NBA.

Note from 6/5/10: Motiejunas has withdrawn his name from the 2010 Draft.

The NBA Draft is all about potential.  Not "what can you do for me this year" but rather "how good will you be three or four years from now?"  So teams take big risks in hopes of big rewards down the line which sometimes works out great but can also be devastating for a franchise like the Pistons selecting Darko ahead of Melo, D. Wade and Bosh.
But despite the failures of some players, the Nowitzki Affect still lingers and GMs and scouts look overseas more than ever to find the next coming.  Motiejunas may not be the next Dirk Nowitzki but he will likely be drafted higher than Dirk was, partially thanks to the agony of those franchises that passed on the little known German in favor of the safer pick.

I project Motiejunas going #6 to the Warriors, drafted by the same man who drafted Nowitzki - Don Nelson.

The 2010 NBA Draft, Deep and Talented!

A look back at the past two decades of NBA Drafts reveals a great inconsistency from year to year.  Some years many All Stars are drafted and the talent pool goes deep into the first or early second round.  The 2003 NBA Draft featured a handful of superstars, LeBron James, D. Wade, Carmelo Anthony, Chris Bosh, plus many other players who have had very good NBA careers so far.  But those great years are the exception, not the norm.

Some years even the top ten picks are mediocre and the majority of the players drafted fizzle out and fail before ever making a difference for an NBA team.  Case in point, the 2000 Draft.  The top five picks, Kenyon Martin, Stromile Swift, Darius Miles, Marcus Fizer and Mike Miller all failed to become stars in the league and the entire first round featured exactly zero star players.  The best of the bunch might be Hidayet Turkoglu, a good third option type player, while the second round of the 2000 draft produced one steal, Michael Redd but no other meaningful players.

So the question now is, how does the 2010 draft look in terms of depth, talent and future stars?  The answer is good news for the NBA, it's teams and the fans.  Not only are there a handful of potential superstars in this draft but there is great depth as well.  Wall, Turner and some of the young big men such as Favors, Cousins and Motiejunas could develop into perennial All Stars and many other projected first round picks could be the same.

But what might make this draft special is the depth of talent which extends well into the late first round or even into the second round.  Teams with multiple first round picks like the Timberwolves, Grizzlies and Nets could each be adding a couple of key players to their rosters.  Many of the players are young or inexperienced and will take time to develop (Avery Bradley, Hassan Whiteside etc.) but I think a great many of them will find NBA success or even stardom.

My prediction for this draft, when we look back 5 or 10 years from now, is that it grades out very well in terms of star players, number of impact players and second round steals.  But it remains to be seen which GM's will realize this and make moves now to acquire some of this great talent.  In exactly one month we'll all find out.

A New Era For The Philadelphia 76ers!

After a miserable season the ping pong balls bounced right for Philly and they came away with the number two pick in the draft.  If the pick does indeed turn out to be Evan Turner as many predict, it will be the beginning of a brighter future for the downtrodden franchise.

In fact, Philadelphia has already added some talented players in the past few drafts but a player like Turner could possibly take them to a new level and return Philadelphia basketball to glory.

At the point guard position the 6ers have the youngest player in the league and the lucky charm who represented them at the lottery, Jrue Holiday.  He is a true point guard and team first player and he has the perfect size and skill set for the point position.  Jrue is a year more mature now (almost 20 yo) and should begin to take over a leadership role as next year progresses.

Adding Evan Turner's ball handling and playmaking skills next to Holiday looks like the perfect combination to lead Philadelphia back to NBA prominence.  And if Thad Young continues to develop and Mo Speights gains consistency and better health to go along with his considerable talents there are two more solid young pieces to the rebuilding project.

Which brings us to the veterans.  Andre Iguodola is a bit of an enigma, at times looking like a star in the making but too often disappearing or falling just short of stardom.  He is a likely candidate to be traded if the Sixers draft Turner and it remains to be seen how much they can get in return.

Would the Jazz trade us the number nine pick and a salary player for Iggy?  Could the Sixers stock pile some picks from Minnesota in what looks to be a deep draft?

Other possibilities include the Sixers offering Iguodola as bait for other teams to take on the contract of Elton Brand in exchange for a pick and some expiring contracts.

Assuming Brand is back he should be more settled, hopefully healthy and ready to contribute.  The problem is that he doesn't fit their style of play and slows them down too much.  Sam Dalembert is the sixers best hope at center but is also potential trade bait.  Backup center Jason Smith has a really good skill set but needs to put it all together and finally prove his worth.

And yes, new Coach Doug Collins will have his patience tested at times and the wins might not come early but it's still possible, even in the era of free agency to build a winner from the ground up.  It took some lucky ping pong balls and it remains to be seen whether or not Evan Turner is indeed the pick (and becomes a star) but it looks like better days are ahead for the Philadelphia 76ers!

The 2010 NBA Lottery - A First Look

Now that we know the order for the 2010 Draft, what predictions can be made?

Most people assume that the lucky Wizards will select John Wall and find a way to pair him with Gilbert Arenas or trade the veteran.  Wall is so immensely talented and such a natural leader that it is all but assured that the Wizards will make him the centerpiece of their next decade.  Turner might be just as high on some draft boards but the younger, more explosive Wall should be the pick.

The 76ers were also big winners in the lottery and will likely land Turner, giving them a very nice looking young backcourt.  They will take a long look at the big guys, and will surely be enamored with DeMarcus Cousins but in the end a star guard like Turner would be their best choice.

The Nets are still licking their wounds but when it's all said and done there will be a great prospect waiting for them at number three.  The choice seems to be between Favors and Cousins and either one would add a big piece to the rebuilding in New Jersey.  Devon Harris had a rough year but is still an extremely talented point guard and with Lee, Williams and CDR at the 2 and 3 positions the nets are doing just fine in their backcourt.

The Timberwolves came away with the fourth pick and will have a choice of one of the power forwards or small forward Wesley Johnson.  A trade might be in the works, either to deal with the Ricky Rubio situation or a team looking to trade up and take Favors or Cousins.  Either way the Wolves are in a great situation to get an impact player or perhaps two.

Seeing Wall or Turner play along side Tyreke Evans would have been sweet but the Kings are lucky that there appears to be at least five top prospects in this draft.  If Cousins falls to this spot he would be a strong possibility but don't underestimate the talent and upside of Euro big man Donatas Motiejunas.  Five might be earlier than most mock drafts have him going but he has the upside to become a special player.

The Warriors will add another solid piece to their rebuilding project.  Motiejunas would be a perfect fit but either one of the athletic small forwards, Johnson or Al-Farouq Aminu would be a nice addition as well.

The Pistons should be looking to take the best player available.  If one of the higher rated players falls to the 7 spot it could be a gift for the Pistons.  Given all the talented big men available look for them to come away with a solid power forward or center from this draft, perhaps Hassan Whiteside.

The Clippers will have Blake Griffin back in action next year and could add a solid second option with this pick.  A big man like Hassan Whiteside would make a lot of sense as would one of the steady role players Patrick Patterson or Greg Monroe.

At this point in the draft the sure fire prospects will have been taken but there will be lots of high upside, boom or bust type players still to select from.

The Jazz get to pick 9th and will likely follow form and take a solid player like Monroe, Patterson or Cole Aldrich.  Avery Bradley could begin to garner some interest around this spot or if Montiejunas is still on the board he would be a nice fit.

At 10 the Pacers will be tempted by local hero Gordon Hayward but they would be wise to take the best player available.  That could be one of the many PF,s like Ekpe Udoh or Ed Davis, or perhaps SG Xavier Henry.  I think it's a little too high for Henry, who is a great outside shooter but has limited athleticism.

The Hornets pick 11th and should take the best non point guard available.  At this point in the draft drafting for position becomes less important than simply finding a legit NBA player.  There is plenty of talent still available and staying true to their board will serve these late lottery teams well.

Memphis seems like a perfect fit for Avery Bradley, if the youngster is still available.  He would compliment OJ Mayo nicely and has the potential  to surprise like a Russell Westbrook.

Toronto needs to hit on this pick to help replace the likely departing Chris Bosh.  Ed Davis or Ekpe Udoh could be the pick here.

And the last of the lottery teams is the Rockets who are usually very active on draft day so a trade up, down or sideways could be in the works here.  If they stay put we could see a player like a Daniel Orton or Larry Sanders be considered with this pick.

Stay tuned for updated Mock Drafts and a Final Mock Draft leading up to the June 24th draft!