2009 Point Guard Class "DEEP"

Say your an NBA GM sitting there with the 10th pick in the draft and you need a point guard. You assume Rubio is gone, maybe do a little scouting on Jennings in case he falls on draft day but mainly your focused on a group of 3 slightly undersized college stars who should be sitting there when you pick: Ty Lawson (UNC) Jonny Flynn (Cuse) and Jeff Teague (Wake) and a small school player: Eric Maynor (VCU). Then you scout two Freshmen with true NBA bodies but questionable point guard skills: Tyreke Evans (Memphis) and Jrue Holiday (UCLA) and you're left with a tough decision.

Here's what I would do

History has shown that you go with the player with the most upside. They don't always pan out but when you look at Kobe going with the 13th pick, Al Jefferson 15th, Monta Ellis 40th and the list goes on, you see a pattern of young stars and superstars being picked later in the draft. Usually bypassed for the safer pick, the college star.

Of course you can point to the many failed "upside picks" as well so there are surely risks involved but to me it's a bigger risk letting the next Kobe Bryant slip by then it is taking an unproven player. One more obvious consideration is what situation your team is in. If they're a soon to be playoff team maybe the proven player makes sense, and visa versa. see below for more...