Players Rising And Falling On The Eve Of The Draft

The action has begun!  Trades are being announced, rumors are flying and prospects are rising and falling as the full picture of The 2010 NBA Draft begins to become clear.

Yahoo and other sites have reported that Daniel Orton is said to be falling down draft boards due to a couple of red flags.  An apparent knee problem, bad decision making in not hiring an agent and other bad mouthing from the Kentucky side.  Still, Orton is a physical specimen and should be valued highly enough to maintain a first round grade.  It's these boom or bust type players that can make or break a franchise.

Speaking of wide bodied forwards it is rumored that Tiny Gallon (left) is rising into the later part of the first round.  He is a large mammal, in the mold of Tractor Traylor, but Tiny is a more skilled player and  boasts a very good shooting touch for a big man.

Luke Babbit and Paul George have been getting a lot of hype in the past few days with not as much attention being paid to Gordon Hayward who may be falling just a bit.  If the Pacers trade down it seems likely that they will target Hayward in the late teens, especially if they are able to find a PG via trade or have one targeted in the second round.

Kevin Seraphin is a little known French prospect who is certain to be the first European player drafted.  This 6,9 power forward has rare explosive ability for a player of his size and reminds me of both Amare Stoudemire and Shawn Kemp.  He is a raw talent but if he develops to his potential he could be a steal in this draft.  With all of the attention going to the college big men he is falling under the radar of fans but should be rising up the draft boards of NBA team's.

I haven't seen much mention of Eric Bledsoe recently and it seems that he may be trapped in that dreadful "tweener" category. A natural shooting guard stuck in a point guard's body. One positive for Bledsoe is that there are not a lot of PG prospects getting first round grades so he may be able to sneak in. Or perhaps the teams that really like him are keeping especially quiet......hum?

It's that time of year again, when everything you hear you take with a grain of salt and everything you read (including this) this guesswork and prediction. 24 hours from now it might all make sense, or maybe we'll all be scratching our heads in bewilderment, but at least we'll know which teams the players will play for. :)

All Quiet On The Trade Front..... For Now

With the exception of a few minor deals there has been little apparent activity in the NBA trade markets.  The 76ers and Kings swapped bigs and the Warriors took cash from Portland to exchange second round picks but for the most part there as been an eerie calm leading up to Thursday's draft.  But the storm is brewing, the rumors are beginning to fly and by Friday morning of this week the NBA landscape will be drastically altered by the annual trade-fest that accompanies The Draft.

Evan if the rumors of Chris Paul being traded turn out to be false we should still expect a significant number of veterans to exchange teams as well as plenty of draft picks changing hands.  With all of the smokescreens being thrown up by the GM's and coaches it's impossible to tell which players will be on the move but history tells that they will move and some of the moves will probably shock us.

Two days to go until it all goes down.  I look forward to following this post up with a look back after The Draft.  Until then, buckle up and enjoy the ride.

My Type of Player, Gani Lawal

Playing next to Derrick Favors at Georgia Tech last season could have been very harmful for Gani Lawal's draft stock.  He could have looked like a second tier prospect sharing the stage with the young phenom.  He could have lost touches, put up lower numbers and faded into obscurity (also known as a Senior season in college) but no, Lawal excelled and looked like the better player for much of the season.  He played at a consistant high level all year long and proved to NBA scouts that he has a bright NBA future.

Lawal is undersized at 6,8 and this will keep him from becoming a top 10 selection but in this draft loaded with power forwards he is a sleeper who could be a steal later in the first or early second round.  He also lacks the insane explosiveness of his former teammate Favors but he has enough lift to be affective and is more efficient and better skilled offensively at this point.

His offensive game consists mostly of post ups, dunks, put backs and the occasional jumper but it remains to be seen whether or not he can stretch is range out to 15 feet and become a complete power forward.

His lack of height limits his shot blocking ability but his overall defense is very good and he gets into position and understands team defense.  He has a workman-like attitude and projects as a glue type team player who plays D, rebounds and holds his team together with his hustle.

These positive traits remind me of two players who dropped to the second round of the draft but have become very good players, Paul Milsap and Carlos Boozer.  Like these two, Lawal will likely come in with a chip on his shoulder and could work his way into a productive role, even in his rookie year.  My projection is that Gani Lawal hears his name called in the first round on Thursday night, possibly as high as #20 overall to the Spurs.

Down To The Wire

With only a few more days till the draft here are a few thoughts and expectations:

As I've written about before, this draft appears to have a lot of depth and the pre draft workouts have done nothing to change that assessment.  The top of the draft looks to have a few superstar type prospects and the talent goes well into the second round.  It's a great year to have multiple first rounders and look for teams to try to trade into the late first and early second round.

The DeMarcus Cousins debate is in full chorus and it will be one of the fascinating stories of Thursday night to see where he ends up going.  Greg Monroe seems to be rising up draft boards and could end up going before Cousins.  Will Cousins fall to Detroit at 7?

How will teams grade Avery Bradley?  I see him as a high level prospect with a ton of upside like a Russell Westbrook but he is young and unproven.  Could he end up falling like Jrue Holiday did last year or will a lottery team nab him?

Who goes first, Hassan Whiteside, Ed Davis, Ekpe Udoh or Daniel Orton?   They are all over the place on different draft sites and NBA draft boards and it will be interesting to see how it shakes out.  The defensive ability of Whiteside is very intriguing and could give him a lift on draft day while Orton is very unproven but has a ton of strength and seems to have the right mentality to continue to work hard and improve.

Or does Cole Aldrich surprise and end up going ahead of those four?  Either way, there is a wealth of big men in this draft and teams will be loading up on front court players.

I expect it to be a very active draft in terms of trades.  Look for teams trading down to be compensated not only with draft picks and/or players but by dumping big salary players as well.  Salary Cap is the name of the game in the NBA these days and some teams value cap space just as much as young prospects.

With only a few more days to go things are getting very exciting.   Stay tuned for the final mock draft.

The Forgotten Man, Patrick Patterson

Of the FIVE Kentucky Wildcats expected to be drafted in the first round of this year's draft it's the four freshmen who get most of the attention and hype.  They're young and exiting while the older guy is, dare I say, just a bit boring.  But despite not being a media darling, junior power forward Patrick Patterson is a player who can step in right away and make a difference on an NBA team and is about as sure of a prospect as you can get.  

While his upside is not through the roof like Wall and Cousins and he doesn't get the attention like Orton and Bledsoe he does have a game that fits the NBA style of play.  He should produce early in his career and would be a good fit for a playoff caliber team such as the Jazz or Hornets.  

Patterson reminds me of David West with his solid all around game including a good mid range jumper. He has extended his offensive game out to about the college three and works the baseline very well.  He is unlikely to become a number one or two scorer but seems like a very good third option and could thrive with a pass first point guard like Deron Williams or Chris Paul.

He has a lot of versatility and can guard the three and four positions and has good potential as a rebounder.  He is quick up and down the court and excels at getting out on the break and filling lanes.

Looking back on this draft a few years from now there will be some major busts and disappointments at the top of the draft.  Some of the big hype players will have failed to find their footing but it seems quite certain that Patrick Patterson will be a solid pro and could make some teams regret choosing a younger, more hyped player over this steady veteran.

The Upside of Hassan Whiteside

The NBA draft is a tricky thing.  So full of promise and the potential of  finding a franchise altering player, yet so uncertain.  Even with the NBA's age limit which prohibits players from jumping from high school to the pros it is still a very young and unproven bunch of players who project as lottery picks each year.

This year is no different and as many as 7 freshmen could be drafted in the lottery, some still 18 years old.  One of these freshmen, 7 foot center Hassan Whiteside of Marshall is a bit older at 20 years old but still very young both in terms of age and the development of his game.  But like Wall, Favors and Cousins there is so much upside potential with Whiteside that he is certain to be a lottery pick and perhaps even a top 6 or 7 pick.

His height and huge wing span combined with very good quickness and athleticism make him a natural basketball player, and it shows.  Hassan averaged an impressive 5.4 blocks per game in his one and only season at Marshall, while collecting nearly 9 boards a game.  He is an instinctive defensive player and should have an immediate impact on that end of the court, even as a rookie.

Offensively Whiteside is developing some nice post moves and as he adds strength he'll be more effective.  His jumper is a bit awkward but he hits a good many and because of his height his shot is difficult to block.  He needs to gain consistency and continue to develop back to the basket post moves but he projects as more than simply a defensive stopper.

He is often compared to Marcus Camby both physically and how he plays defense but I think he as a chance to be a scorer as well and might even command a double team to slow him down.

At this point he is still inexperienced and rail thin and it remains to be seen if he can bulk up enough to really thrive in the league.  But the potential is there, the upside is intriguing and some NBA team will draft him early with visions of filling their center position for the next decade.

My mock draft has him going number 7 overall to the Detroit Pistons who could use all the upside of Hassan Whiteside to bring them back to prominence.

An NBA Draft Lesson From Recent History

Looking back to the 1998 NBA Draft can be painful for many NBA franchises and their fans.  There were a number of All Star caliber players selected that year but most of those players were passed over by the teams picking at the top of the draft.  In particular, a lanky German big man named Dirk Nowitzki lasted until the #9 pick while NCAA players with more exposure such as Michael Olowokandi (right) and Robert Traylor were picked #1 and #6 respectively.  Other college players such as Raef LaFrentz,  Jason Williams and Larry Hughes were also picked ahead of Dirk and those GM's and scouts who made the calls have not taken their mistakes lightly.

In subsequent years the lessons learned from the 1998 draft have been on display and we have seen Euro big men selected higher and higher each year.  Some have been colossal busts like N. Tskitishvili (#5 in 2002) and Darko Milicic (#2 in 2003), others have become stars, like Pau Gasol (#3 in 2001) and Andrea Bargnani (#1 in 2006)

The 2010 draft class features another intriguing 7 footer from Europe, Donatas Motiejunas of Lithuania.  He has a game similar to Bargnani, Nowitzki and Gasol but like the others mentioned above, it is uncertain how his game will translate to the NBA.

Note from 6/5/10: Motiejunas has withdrawn his name from the 2010 Draft.

The NBA Draft is all about potential.  Not "what can you do for me this year" but rather "how good will you be three or four years from now?"  So teams take big risks in hopes of big rewards down the line which sometimes works out great but can also be devastating for a franchise like the Pistons selecting Darko ahead of Melo, D. Wade and Bosh.
But despite the failures of some players, the Nowitzki Affect still lingers and GMs and scouts look overseas more than ever to find the next coming.  Motiejunas may not be the next Dirk Nowitzki but he will likely be drafted higher than Dirk was, partially thanks to the agony of those franchises that passed on the little known German in favor of the safer pick.

I project Motiejunas going #6 to the Warriors, drafted by the same man who drafted Nowitzki - Don Nelson.