The 2010 NBA Lottery - A First Look

Now that we know the order for the 2010 Draft, what predictions can be made?

Most people assume that the lucky Wizards will select John Wall and find a way to pair him with Gilbert Arenas or trade the veteran.  Wall is so immensely talented and such a natural leader that it is all but assured that the Wizards will make him the centerpiece of their next decade.  Turner might be just as high on some draft boards but the younger, more explosive Wall should be the pick.

The 76ers were also big winners in the lottery and will likely land Turner, giving them a very nice looking young backcourt.  They will take a long look at the big guys, and will surely be enamored with DeMarcus Cousins but in the end a star guard like Turner would be their best choice.

The Nets are still licking their wounds but when it's all said and done there will be a great prospect waiting for them at number three.  The choice seems to be between Favors and Cousins and either one would add a big piece to the rebuilding in New Jersey.  Devon Harris had a rough year but is still an extremely talented point guard and with Lee, Williams and CDR at the 2 and 3 positions the nets are doing just fine in their backcourt.

The Timberwolves came away with the fourth pick and will have a choice of one of the power forwards or small forward Wesley Johnson.  A trade might be in the works, either to deal with the Ricky Rubio situation or a team looking to trade up and take Favors or Cousins.  Either way the Wolves are in a great situation to get an impact player or perhaps two.

Seeing Wall or Turner play along side Tyreke Evans would have been sweet but the Kings are lucky that there appears to be at least five top prospects in this draft.  If Cousins falls to this spot he would be a strong possibility but don't underestimate the talent and upside of Euro big man Donatas Motiejunas.  Five might be earlier than most mock drafts have him going but he has the upside to become a special player.

The Warriors will add another solid piece to their rebuilding project.  Motiejunas would be a perfect fit but either one of the athletic small forwards, Johnson or Al-Farouq Aminu would be a nice addition as well.

The Pistons should be looking to take the best player available.  If one of the higher rated players falls to the 7 spot it could be a gift for the Pistons.  Given all the talented big men available look for them to come away with a solid power forward or center from this draft, perhaps Hassan Whiteside.

The Clippers will have Blake Griffin back in action next year and could add a solid second option with this pick.  A big man like Hassan Whiteside would make a lot of sense as would one of the steady role players Patrick Patterson or Greg Monroe.

At this point in the draft the sure fire prospects will have been taken but there will be lots of high upside, boom or bust type players still to select from.

The Jazz get to pick 9th and will likely follow form and take a solid player like Monroe, Patterson or Cole Aldrich.  Avery Bradley could begin to garner some interest around this spot or if Montiejunas is still on the board he would be a nice fit.

At 10 the Pacers will be tempted by local hero Gordon Hayward but they would be wise to take the best player available.  That could be one of the many PF,s like Ekpe Udoh or Ed Davis, or perhaps SG Xavier Henry.  I think it's a little too high for Henry, who is a great outside shooter but has limited athleticism.

The Hornets pick 11th and should take the best non point guard available.  At this point in the draft drafting for position becomes less important than simply finding a legit NBA player.  There is plenty of talent still available and staying true to their board will serve these late lottery teams well.

Memphis seems like a perfect fit for Avery Bradley, if the youngster is still available.  He would compliment OJ Mayo nicely and has the potential  to surprise like a Russell Westbrook.

Toronto needs to hit on this pick to help replace the likely departing Chris Bosh.  Ed Davis or Ekpe Udoh could be the pick here.

And the last of the lottery teams is the Rockets who are usually very active on draft day so a trade up, down or sideways could be in the works here.  If they stay put we could see a player like a Daniel Orton or Larry Sanders be considered with this pick.

Stay tuned for updated Mock Drafts and a Final Mock Draft leading up to the June 24th draft!

Cole Aldrich and the Byrant Reeves Effect

In the mid 1990's when Bryant Reeves was roaming Big 12 basketball courts, throwing his Big Country body around, he looked like a sure bet to have a solid NBA career.  He was drafted #6 overall and became the face of the brand new Vancouver Grizzlies.

But then reality set in.  He was too slow, couldn't catch the ball cleanly, couldn't shoot the ball, could barely get up and down the court, could barely jump.  He gained weight, his body fell apart and Reeves was out of the league a few years later.

First let me say that Kansas center Cole Aldrich is a better basketball player than Reeves.  He understands the game, plays the right way and even has some decent post moves.  His outside shot is strange looking but improving and his conditioning is far better than Reeves.

But when the reality of the NBA game sets in we might see history repeat itself.  Aldrich is a half court player who is able to maximize his effectiveness in half court sets and with the long NCAA shot clock.  He will struggle to keep up with the speed of the NBA game and with NBA caliber athletes.

He will still likely be drafted in the first round and find a spot on a NBA roster.  He will add value to a team as a backup center, someone to bring in to guard the post but at the end of the day his average foot speed and athleticism will limit his ability to compete at the highest level.

He seems like a nice kid and I wish him all the best but I think any team taking him in the lottery will have failed to learn from history.

Draymond Green, The Dancing Bear

Every once in a while a player comes along that breaks the mold of what it means to be a basketball player.   When Magic Johnson emerged as a true point guard at 6,9 the mold of the point guard was broken.  When Charles Barkley dominated the low block at 6,6 the mold of the power forward was broken.  And it's happening again.

Meet Draymond Green, a 6 foot 6 inch forward who resembles Barkley in stature but is a pass first distributer who has taken a few pages from the book of Magic Johnson.  Nicknamed the 'Dancing Bear' Green can do everything on the court and play every position, whether it's guarding the opposing center or leading the fast break.  Only a sophomore, Green already has the unquestioned role as team leader both vocally and by the example of how he plays.

While he doesn't project as a sure first rounder or big time prospect, I expect the Dancing Bear to start making his way up draft boards as scouts and GM's start to think outside the mold and begin to envision what a truly versatile player can bring to a team.  And if he develops his jump shot to complement all of his other skills the Dancing Bear could be prowling courts for the next decade.

Syracuse Reloads with Fabricio de Melo

After their disappointing early exit in the 2010 NCAA tournament the Syracuse Orange are likely to lose their star player Wesley Johnson to the NBA along with two key Seniors.  But that doesn't mean there won't be a top NBA prospect in upstate New York next year.

Enter 7 foot Brazilian born Fabricio de Melo.  A true center with a solid frame and surprisingly quick hops for a 270 pounder, Fab Melo already has NBA scouts drooling and Orange fans ready to put this year's disappointment behind them and begin dreaming about 2010/11.

In fact there will be two top prospects joining the Syracuse program next year as Dion Waiters, a 6,4 shooting guard is ranked higher than de Melo in some rankings.

But what sets de Melo apart from other bigs is his combination of strength and quickness.  He has very good lateral quickness, back peddle and quick leaping ability.  And at 7 foot, 270 pounds and muscular, he can hold his own against just about anyone.  He also has decent ball skills which will only improve under the tutelage of Jim Boehiem and his staff.

Yes, it's early to be talking about the NBA and surely he would benefit from a few years at Syracuse but my early projection lists de Melo as a lottery pick in June of 2011.

The Emergence of Demetri McCamey

One of the most overlooked players in the nation, Demetri McCamey, a rock solid point guard from Illinois has emerged from obscurity and jumped onto the radar board of every NBA team.  At 6 foot 3 inches tall and built like a football player, McCamey is an explosive package of quickness, strength and ball handling. His shake and bake moves and unique way of dipping his shoulders as he penetrates makes him very, very difficult to stay in front of.  His jumper has looked very good and he gets many good looks from outside because of his quickness.

But it's not all about pure athleticism and McCamey is far more than just an athlete.  He is a true point guard who loves to set up his teammates and only takes over the game when necessary.  He's only a Junior but he might be bouncing from college ball quicker than a crossover since he's now projected as a first round pick on some boards.  I've got him going in the lottery.

Upperclassmen, Anderson and Pondexter Impress

We all love to hype the youngsters but the upperclassmen are very strong this year, highlighted by the play of James Anderson of Oklahoma State, Quincy Pondexter of Washington and many others including Damion James, Stanley Robinson and DaSean Butler.  Meanwhile it seems that many of the Freshmen have hit a wall, with the exception of..... John Wall of course (no pun intended).


Seniors around the country have stepped up but none with better numbers than Anderson.  Averaging 22 Points, 5.8 Rebounds and getting to the foul line 8.2 times a game Anderson has begun to blossom and looks like a mid to late First Rounder.  Damion James is rounding out his game and looks very NBA ready and Stanley Robinson has emerged, not only as a good player but as the leader of that UConn team.  Meanwhile Quincy Pondexter has stepped out from the shadows of overhyped Freshman Abdul Gaddy and Sophomore Isiah Thomas to become the best pro prospect at UW.  His all around game is impressive, now that his shooting and offensive production have matched his defensive abilities.  All four of these upperclassmen now project as first round picks in June.

Perhaps the biggest surprise of the Freshman class is the versatility and talent of Gonzaga SF Elias Harris.  In many ways he reminds me of a young Shawn Marion!  He has sneaky quickness and very good strength.  He plays an intelligent game and makes his teammates better.  He often looks more like a Senior than a Freshman and might be making like a Senior and leaving college next year for the NBA.


and..


in other news, what's up with North Carolina?  With all these losses I'm questioning whether Ed Davis belongs in the top ten.  He looks softer than Brandon Wright at this point.  I'm still intrigued with Henson and think that he might be the best of the bunch.... but ouch, they're all playing pathetic, uninspired ball.

Harrison Barnes and John Henson

When North Carolina received a commitment from #1 High Schooler Harrison Barnes I began to envision what the Tar Heels might look like next year.  I know it's early and there's a whole season left to be played but in the world of basketball prospects it's never too early to look ahead.

The 2010/11 Tar Heel Roster could be one of the best in the history of college basketball if the underclassmen stay in school but more than likely at least one will turn pro.  Sophomore forward Ed Davis projects as a lottery pick this year and will likely be playing in the NBA next Fall.  But even if he goes pro and the talk of greatest college roster ever never gets off the ground UNC will still be loaded.  

Assuming Freshmen forward John Henson returns for a second run, he will team with Harrison Barnes on a team that could feature the #1 and #2 selections in the 2011 draft.  They would be the most dynamic duo in the land next year and as team first type players they would make the Tar Heels very tough to beat.  And that's what make's this story just a little more interesting.  

So often these future NBA stars have huge attitude problems and play selfish ball.  They are often immature and misguided by all the praise that gets heaped upon them.  But both Barnes and Henson are humble, down to earth, focused, team first players who elevate others to their level instead of hogging the spotlight.  These two players on the same NBA team would be a dream come true.  These two players on the same college team might just prove to be unstoppable.  

There's a long and hopefully exciting season still to play but I'm already getting excited about next year.