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Tristan Thompson - NBA Draft Stock Rising

Texas Freshman Tristan Thompson is playing at a very high level and showing the potential to become a star power forward at the next level.  Many of the NBA mock drafts and the so called 'experts' list Thompson outside of the lottery but his stock is rising up my 2011 mock draft, all the way to the top five!

I don't expect that my blog will influence all the others but I do think that other draftniks will see what they've been missing and soon they'll be moving Thompson higher.

Thompson has a great combination of size, quickness, and an advanced knowledge of the game.  He seems to always know where to be on the court and once he gets the ball in his hands he's tough to stop.  His one weakness is at the foul line, where he hits only about 50%.  He has good enough form on his shot to improve drastically and possibly become a 70% in a few years.

Thompson is slightly less explosive than Derrick Favors, the #3 pick of 2010, but Thompson has better skills and better basketball IQ. He also plays with a lot of intensity and hustle. Power forwards with his size and skill combination are very valuable and the next level and I think Thompson's true value will be recognized soon.

Also rising up the draft board is Harrison Barnes who was off to a slow start but has come on strong and is showing flashes of greatness.

Terrence Jones is still in the top five but is slipping.  He is still playing at a high level but looks like a tweener, not quite a power forward or a small forward.

Other players who are rising are John Jenkins, John Henson and Jujuan Johnson.

Terrence Jones Explodes Onto The Scene

Every year, at the beginning of the basketball season there's a player who busts onto the national scene and into the spotlight.  This year that player is Terrence Jones, the 6,9 freshman forward from Kentucky.  Jones has simply dominated in his first few weeks of college ball and has even taken on a leadership role for the young wildcats.  He is averaging 21 points, 10 rebounds and is shooting better than 46% from three point range.  Physically he reminds me a bit of Amare Stoudemire but with a far superior offensive game.

Jones is a versatile forward who, at 6,9 can stretch the defense out to three point range and use his foot speed to take opposing power forwards off the dribble. Jones is a load for any defense to handle.  He gets to the rim or to the foul line with ease and he also has a solid post up game and is explosive off the low block.  There's not much on the basketball court that Jones can't do.  He rebounds at a high level and is an excellent weak side shot blocker and defender.

The season is young and there will certainly be some ups and downs for Jones and for his young Kentucky squad but the potential is huge.  We already knew that Jones was an elite athlete.  No we are finding out that he is an elite basketball player as well.  He currently ranks as the projected #1 overall pick in the June 2011 NBA Draft, ahead of the more highly touted Harrison Barnes.

Avery Bradley, A Long Wait For A Future Star

When John Wall and Avery Bradley were seniors in High School they were neck in neck for the #1 player ranking.  Of course Wall went on to blossom at Kentucky, become the #1 overall pick by the Wizards and has already had a 28 point, 9 assist game in just his second NBA game.  He will star in commercials, likely be the rookie of the year and perhaps an All Star.

Meanwhile Avery Bradley, the 6,3 guard who played one season at Texas remains deep on the bench for the Boston Celtics.  Starting point guard Rajon Rondo is one of the top point guards in the league and the rest of the team is made up of veteran performers who are pushing for one more shot at a championship.  All this leaves Avery Bradley with little shot at playing time and through three games he has seen a grand total of zero minutes on the court.

Bradley may provide value off the Celtics bench as a late game energy player and defensive stopper but he will spend a lot of long nights watching from the sidelines.  He has the future, in my opinion, a potential lockdown defender on the perimeter and along with Rondo could be a defensive nightmare for slower backcourts to deal with.  But it might be just as likely that Bradley remains on the bench for most of his rookie year, seeing only garbage minutes in blowout wins and loses.

All this raises the question of whether Bradley should have stayed at Texas, not just to improve his draft position but to get the playing time needed to hone his point guard skills.  Of course playing against the like of Rondo in practice every day is an education in and of itself but it leaves me to wonder:  If Bradley had known that he would not be getting minutes as a rookie would he still have chosen to enter the 2010 draft?

For now, he sits and waits.  A star in the waiting.....

Thoughts On The Rookies

With the NBA's regular season approaching we are starting to get a feel for which recent draft picks will be making a big splash in their rookie seasons.  The preseason only tells us so much, especially as it concerns teams win/loss records but it is a good chance to gauge and get a feel for how the youngsters will handle the NBA game.

Number one pick John Wall has been his usual self, a blur on the court, outpacing opponents and teammates alike.  His explosiveness is unparalleled and will lead to many easy baskets, both for himself and teammates but will also lead to many TO's and lost opportunities.

Evan Turner has been nothing short of a disappointment so far and fans in Philly are starting to wonder if he was the right pick.  Can he play alongside Jrue Holiday?  Should the 76ers have drafted Demarcus Cousins?  Those questions remain to be answered but I think it's too early to dispare.  Turner has a world of talent and I think he will eventually find his rythme and figure out how to fit his skills into the NBA game.  But it would be reassuring to see him find some success against the preseason back-ups he's been playing against.

Derrick Favors and Wesley Johnson have also been off to slow starts, which is not so unexpected for the young Favors but most people thought Johnson would find early success at this level.  Again, it's way to early to pass judgements are worry too much about the rookies, before they've even played a real NBA game.

One standout of the preseason is DeMarcus Cousins.  As he was in college, Cousins is too much for most opponents to handle down low and he is rebounding at an impressive clip.  The Kings are heading in the right direction and could be interesting to watch as their young players gel through the course of the season.

Although Blake Griffin wasn't drafted this year he is entering his first real NBA season.  So far he has been nothing short of spectacular for the Clippers, putting up huge numbers and highlight reel plays.

A surprise performer so far this preseason is Jordan Crawford of the Atlanta Hawks.  The 27th pick in the draft is playing more like a lottery selection and making the Hawks think along and hard about finding playing time for him (i.e. trading Jamal Crawford).

The preseason can be deceptive as many teams rest their star players and give the rookies an extended look but it gives us a first glimpse of how the rookies can handle the speed of the NBA game.

First Impressions of the 2010 NBA Draft

The 2010 NBA Draft is just finished and for once, it all kind of went as expected.   There were a number of minor trades and a few players sliding a bit (Whiteside, Orton, Ebanks) but overall there were few surprises.  Most of the trades involved a team giving away a draft pick to unload a contract as teams scramble to clear cap space in hopes of signing the big one.  In the next three weeks or so we'll see how the chips fall with LeBron, DWade, Bosh etc and we'll have a better understanding of the moves made tonight.

One of the stranger happenings of Thursday night was the firing of Portland GM Kevin Pritchard just hours before the draft.  Pritchard still conducting the draft for the Blazers and ended up with some nice picks including Elliot Williams, Armon Johnson and the trade for Luke Babbitt.  And then, presumably, Pritchard packed his bags and headed for the exit, weird.

The Wizards now have a Superstar in John Wall and a very bright future and adding to that bright future is the young Frenchmen, Kevin Seraphin (right) who was traded to Washington after being selected #17 by the bulls.  Watching Seraphin in person just over a year ago I came away extremely impressed as he showed his huge upside against the likes of Cousins, Wall, Henson etc at the Nike Hoops Summit.  He is an explosive leaper and very strong and attacks the rim in a way that would make Shawn Kemp proud.

About a month ago it seemed that Marshall center Hassan Whiteside was destined for the lottery.  Instead he dropped out of the first round all together and was eventually picked #33 by the Kings.  There he'll be paired with #5 pick DeMarcus Cousins and the ever disgruntled Samuel Dalembert to form an intriguing but likely volatile front court.  Still the Kings have a young and talented nucleus that includes last year's ROY Tyreke Evans.

In what might have been the steal of the draft the NBA champion Lakers nabbed Devin Ebanks late in the second round.  Ebanks can't shoot a lick but he is an elite defender and rebounder who will provide a lot of hustle and energy off the Lakers bench.  He is a perfect compliment to Kobe, Pau and the rest of the big egos in L.A.  It was also surprising to see Ebanks' West Virginia teammate, the injured DeSean Butler drafted ahead of the healthy Ebanks.

Another steal, in my opinion was the selection of Gani Lawal by the Phoenix Suns at #46.  All the hype goes to Favors but Lawal is a player who should surprise in Phoenix and perhaps even fill the hole vacated by Amare's (possible) departure.

One pick that surprised me a bit was the selection of Gordon Hayward at #9 by the Utah Jazz.  Most draftniks had the Jazz enamored with Luke Babbitt not Hayward and the NCAA tournament star now has his work cut out for him to live up to the expectations.  Hayward reminds me of a young Mike Miller but I don't know that he'll be able to get his shot off very easily at the next level and he certainly will not be overpowering opponents as he did at Butler.

Even before Free Agency begins we know that the Eastern Conference gained some big time guards in John Wall and Evan Turner and the Nets and Pistons landed quality big men in Favors and Monroe.   If the big Free Agents stay in the Eastern Conference we could see a shift in power from West to East.

Overall, the biggest surprise of the night was the lack of surprises.  The lottery went off pretty much as expected and was almost eerily calm and uneventful.  The NBA draft has become the night for trades in the NBA but this was a quiet year, as free agency looms larger than ever before.  So expect a lot of fireworks over the next month and a lot of money thrown at the big names but in a draft loaded with talent, the teams that made moves tonight might come away looking very smart when we look back five years from now.